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Emmy Awards tonight : Who will win ?

Sunday 16 September 2007, by Mokuji


Outstanding drama: “Boston Legal” (ABC), “Grey’s Anatomy” (ABC), “Heroes” (NBC), “House” (Fox), “The Sopranos” (HBO).

Our pick: Anything but “Boston Legal” would be a start. (It’s a perfectly fine show, but not one of TV’s top five.) The obvious choice is “The Sopranos,” for its complexity, its power and because it nearly stopped American culture this year.

Outstanding comedy: “Entourage” (HBO), “The Office” (NBC), “30 Rock” (NBC), “Two and a Half Men” (CBS), “Ugly Betty” (ABC).

Our pick: “The Office” is pure, rich, intelligent comedy and was even better than in last year’s Emmy-winning season.

Outstanding reality competition: “The Amazing Race” (CBS), “American Idol” (Fox), “Dancing With the Stars” (ABC), “Project Runway” (Bravo), “Top Chef” (Bravo).

Our pick: These are all wildly entertaining shows, despite some knee-jerk reality-hating out there. We love “Top Chef,” and we can see how the spectacularly filmed “The Amazing Race” wins every year. But “American Idol” is a cultural phenomenon for real reasons, and it deserves an Emmy.

Outstanding actress, drama: Patricia Arquette, “Medium” (NBC); Minnie Driver, “The Riches” (FX); Edie Falco, “The Sopranos” Mariska Hargitay, “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” (NBC); Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer” (TNT); Sally Field, “Brothers & Sisters” (ABC).

Our pick: Notice there are six nominees. This happened in a handful of categories. The academy hasn’t said why, but figure there is some kind of tie in the twisted nomination process. Sedgwick would be a good choice, because she carries her show. A better choice would be Field, whose mix of force and vulnerability helped change her series from lightweight soap to seriously good drama.

Outstanding actor, drama: James Gandolfini, “The Sopranos” Hugh Laurie, “House” Denis Leary, “Rescue Me” (FX); James Spader, “Boston Legal” Kiefer Sutherland, “24” (Fox).

Our pick: Hugh Laurie is the man here, and already long overdue. He plays a doctor we should all hate; instead, we can’t get enough of him. But don’t be surprised if the academy gets into “Sopranos” sweep mode, and if that happens, Gandolfini is a good second choice.

Outstanding actress, comedy: Tina Fey, “30 Rock” America Ferrera, “Ugly Betty” Felicity Huffman, “Desperate Housewives” (ABC); Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “The New Adventures of Old Christine” (CBS); Mary-Louise Parker, “Weeds” (Showtime).

Our pick: This is a great field, and how often can you say that, considering that TV has produced so few good, original comedy roles for women in recent years. Almost anyone from this talented group would be a good pick, but our favorite is Fey. She also writes her terrific show, and in a close race, that should be worth something. But really, any of them.

Outstanding actor, comedy: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock” Steve Carell, “The Office” Ricky Gervais, “Extras” (HBO); Tony Shalhoub, “Monk” (USA); Charlie Sheen, “Two and a Half Men.”

Our pick: Baldwin and Carell play two of the worst bosses in American history - and in very different, very endearing ways.

Their challenge will be getting past Shalhoub, who’s won three Emmys, and the academy tends to repeat its votes, particularly on comedy actors. “Monk” is a charming show and Shalhoub is a charming guy, but it’s time to move on.

Outstanding supporting actress, drama: Lorraine Bracco, “The Sopranos” Rachel Griffiths, “Brothers & Sisters” Katherine Heigl, “Grey’s Anatomy” Sandra Oh, “Grey’s Anatomy” Aida Turturro, “The Sopranos” Chandra Wilson, “Grey’s Anatomy.”

Our pick: Griffiths made every scene that she was in better, and she was always interesting to watch.

Outstanding supporting actor, drama: Michael Emerson, “Lost” (ABC); Michael Imperioli, “The Sopranos” T.R. Knight, “Grey’s Anatomy” Terry O’Quinn, “Lost” Masi Oka, “Heroes” William Shatner, “Boston Legal.”

Our pick: Imperioli mugged Lauren Bacall in one scene, which is Emmy-worthy in itself. And Knight might deserve it just for putting up with Isaiah Washington. Still, the pick is Oka, whose charming Hiro Nakamoto was the heart of his series. Plus, he helped start the landslide of nerds on TV this season.

Outstanding supporting actress, comedy: Conchata Ferrell, “Two and a Half Men” Jenna Fischer, “The Office” Elizabeth Perkins, “Weeds” Jaime Pressly, “My Name is Earl” (NBC); Holland Taylor, “Two and a Half Men” Vanessa Williams, “Ugly Betty.”

Our pick: Williams was the flashiest of this strong group and seems a good bet, and Pressly is a constant surprise on “Earl.” But the Emmy should go to Fischer, whose subtle, dry vulnerability gives an honest, gentle soul to “The Office.”

Outstanding supporting actor, comedy: Jon Cryer, “Two and a Half Men” Kevin Dillon, “Entourage” Neil Patrick Harris, “How I Met Your Mother” (CBS); Jeremy Piven, “Entourage” Rainn Wilson, “The Office.”

Our pick: Like them all. Piven deserved his Emmy last year, Dillon is a quiet comic hero of his show, Cryer and Wilson are flat-out funny guys. But we’ll go with Harris, whose old-school, near-slapstick Barney is one of the most enjoyably dopey characters on TV. Wilson is a close second.

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